Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at CMD Regional Championship
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-3-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1316
· range 1316–1316
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1205
Q3 1378
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
